Polling & projections
What recent polls say about the 2026 Victorian state election and what a naive uniform-swing projection would predict seat-by-seat.
Big caveat. Uniform-swing projections are a rough indicator, not a forecast. They ignore regional variation, candidate quality, incumbency effects, the influence of high-profile independents, and the unusual rise of smaller parties in current polling. Treat the numbers below as context, not predictions.
Current polling snapshot
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Primary vote (10-poll average)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | N | ALP | Coa | Grn | ON | Oth | 2PP (ALP–Coa) |
|---|
How the seat projection works
- Take the average Labor-vs-Coalition two-party-preferred (2PP) from the most recent 5 published polls.
- Compare that to Labor's actual 2022 statewide 2PP of 55.0%. The difference is the uniform swing.
- Apply that swing to every district's 2022 2PP result — e.g. if Labor swing is −9%, a district that was Labor 55% TPP in 2022 is projected at 46% TPP in 2026 (Coalition win).
- Classify each seat as safe hold (projected margin ≥5%), close hold (2–5%), in play (<2%), or likely flip (projected winner differs from sitting MP).
Why this is simplistic:
- Real swings are rarely uniform. Some districts move more, some less, some against the trend.
- High-profile independents (e.g. Teal) can completely rewrite the two-party dynamic in a seat.
- Greens- and Independent-held seats aren't a Labor-vs-Coalition contest, so uniform swing doesn't apply cleanly. We flag these.
- One Nation's rise in Victoria to >20% primary (per current polls) could redistribute preferences in ways the 2022 pattern doesn't capture.
- Local candidate quality, campaign events, and the final weeks' media cycle all matter.
Projected seats-to-watch
Districts the uniform-swing model flags as likely flip or in play:
Sources
- Polls aggregated from Wikipedia's running poll tracker for the 2026 Victorian state election.
- 2022 TPP by district: Wikipedia / cross-checked against Antony Green.